CAPA · 00:30
Aviation has spent much of the post-pandemic period testing the proposition that travel demand is unusually resistant to economic shocks. The latest issue of CAPA - Centre for Aviation's Airline Leader Briefing shows that proposition is now being challenged. Global passenger traffic fell 0.8% year-on-year in Aug-2026, according to IATA, reversing Jul-2026's return to growth. International RPKs declined 0.9%, domestic RPKs 0.5%, while capacity still increased 0.3%, pushing the global passenger load factor down 0.9 percentage points to 85.1%. The significance is not that aviation has suddenly entered a downturn. It has not. Global scheduled capacity remained 1.4% above the previous year in early Oct-2026, with particularly strong seasonal expansion in China and the US. But the relationship between capacity, demand and price is changing. Consumers are becoming more selective, value sensitivity is increasing and the industry's remaining fuel-hedging protection is being eroded just as energ